Expect the worst

The U.S. economy is suffering from a severe economic weakness and its impact on cement consumption and the construction industry will not be mild, according to the latest Portland Cement Association (PCA) forecast of cement, concrete and construction.

In 2008, portland cement consumption is expected to drop 11 percent, followed by an additional 5.5 percent in 2009. PCA predicts total cement consumption in this year to be 101.7 million metric tons. A record consumption of 128 million metric tons was reached in 2005. Peak-to-trough declines in consumption will total nearly 30 million metric tons, marking one of the worst industry downturns since the Great Depression.

"We are currently in the third year of a four-year industry contraction that began in 2006," Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist said. "High fuel prices, slow job creation, and tight lending standards will all adversely impact the entire spectrum of construction activity."

Sullivan anticipates that while harsh residential conditions continue to act as a significant drag on cement consumption, the nonresidential sector will also see large declines for the next two years.

"Although it grew nearly 11 percent in 2007, nonresidential construction spending is expected to fall almost eight percent in 2008 and another 12 percent in 2009," Sullivan said. "Nonresidential construction is closely tied to economic activity. As the economy softens, the expected return on commercial investments decline, reducing the incentive to build and expand."

An additional slowdown in public construction, which accounts for nearly half of total cement consumption in the United States, is predicted for 2009 and will continue through 2010.

PCA targets the second half of 2010 with the trend of strong growth in cement consumption. By this time, according to the PCA report, all regions of the United States should be experiencing a recovery in housing and nonresidential construction will be on the upswing. Your comment?