Simonson says

The last year has been a tough one for many in the construction industry, according to an article published on the ARI website. The next one could be just as difficult, said Ken Simonson, the chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America. Speaking at a meeting of the group's Middle Tennessee members, Simonson predicted that residential construction will remain slow, that well-performing commercial sectors will turn sour and that costs will keep rising.

Home building, which has been down about 40 percent this year, will not pick up until midway through next year at the earliest, Simonson said. Construction of rental properties, which has remained flat, should also start to fall, as foreclosures and poor condominium deals create a shadow market that will drag down rents.

The housing market will also put a damper on school construction. Declining home values mean fewer tax dollars for improvements and new buildings. Likewise, higher gas prices will mean less driving and less gas tax revenue for highway construction. Meanwhile, lodging, retail and office construction will slow with the weakened economy.

Simonson threw his support behind the White House plan to borrow $700 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities from banks to help cure the ailing U.S. economy. Over the past few months, Simonson has been hearing for the first time from construction companies that credit has dried up. Without better access to loans, the industry will not be able to get back on its feet, he said.

That said, Simonson said the stakes aren't as dire as some believe. The nation remains in a better position to weather a downturn than it was on the eve of the Great Depression nearly 80 years ago. Your comment?